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What a collapse. Punjab Kings started IPL 2026 winning six of their first seven games, the strongest opening to a season in the history of the league, and the playoffs felt like a formality.

Now, after a heartbreaking last-ball defeat to an already-eliminated Mumbai Indians side in Dharamsala on Thursday night, PBKS have lost five consecutive games and the playoff berth that once looked guaranteed is suddenly anything but.

Tilak Varma's stunning 75 off 33 balls, culminating in a six off the final ball of the match off Xavier Bartlett, ended Punjab Kings' game and potentially their season's momentum at the worst possible time.

Here is where PBKS stand and what needs to happen for them to survive.

PBKS vs MI: The heartbreaking final over that changed everything

Punjab Kings needed to defend 10 from the final over with Bumrah-led Mumbai needing a near-miracle. Will Jacks smashed a full toss for six off the first ball and suddenly the equation had changed completely.

Two needed from two balls. Bartlett bowled slow and short, almost down leg, and Tilak swivelled and pulled it over deep backward square leg for a six. Game over. PBKS's fifth consecutive defeat confirmed. A team that was 6-1 just weeks ago now cannot win a game and the bowling that masked their problems for so long has completely unravelled.

Where PBKS stand right now in IPL 2026 Playoff race

Punjab Kings sit fourth in the IPL 2026 table with 13 points from 12 matches, six wins, five losses and one washout. They have two games remaining, against RCB on May 17 in Dharamsala and LSG on May 23 in Lucknow.

The chasing pack has closed right in, CSK and Rajasthan Royals are both on 12 points with games in hand. RCB and GT sit on top with 16 points each, SRH are third on 14. PBKS are the most vulnerable team in the top four and have effectively lost control of their own destiny.

3 IPL 2026 Playoffs scenarios Punjab Kings are staring at after defeat vs Mumbai Indians

  • Win both - 17 points: This is the only path that gives PBKS genuine comfort. Seventeen points would almost certainly guarantee a playoff spot and likely push them into the top three. Their NRR of plus 0.355 is better than both CSK and RR, which would give them a tiebreaker advantage if needed. This scenario requires beating RCB, the current table-toppers, in what is effectively a virtual quarterfinal on May 17.
  • Win one, lose one - 15 points: This is the danger zone. Fifteen points could be enough or it could leave PBKS watching the results of other games with a calculator in hand. If CSK or RR win two of their remaining three matches they hit 16 points and leapfrog Punjab. At 15 points PBKS would be entirely dependent on results elsewhere going their way and their NRR holding up in a tiebreaker scenario.
  • Lose both- 13 points: Elimination. A single win from either CSK or RR would be enough to overtake them and shut the door permanently.

The May 17 game against RCB is everything at Dharamshala

The match against RCB on May 17 in Dharamsala is the pivot point of Punjab Kings' entire season. A win keeps them alive and gives them a clean path to 17 points. A loss caps them at 15 and puts their fate entirely in other teams' hands.

The cruel irony is that Dharamsala, the venue where they just suffered this heartbreaking loss to MI, is also the venue where they must now beat the table-toppers to save their campaign. Before tonight's defeat Punjab Kings had a 70 percent playoff probability. That number has collapsed to approximately 45 percent after losing to a team that had nothing to play for. The dream is not over but it has never felt more fragile.

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What has gone wrong for Punjab Kings and can it be fixed

The collapse from 6-1 to 6-6-1 across the second half of the season is one of the most dramatic mid-season falls in recent IPL history.

The PBKS batting has never been the issue, Shreyas Iyer has been magnificent, Priyansh Arya was extraordinary before his form dipped and the overall run production has remained competitive.

The bowling has been the problem. The inability to defend totals, conceding 265 to DC when 264 was on the board, now losing from a position of strength against already-eliminated MI, suggests a death-bowling unit that has lost confidence and lost its execution.

Two wins from two games against RCB and LSG is the only acceptable outcome for Punjab from here. The players know it. The fans know it. Now they have to go and do something about it.