Pakistan find themselves in a precarious position in the T20 World Cup 2026, with their semi-final hopes hanging by a mathematical thread.

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Led by Salman Ali Agha, Pakistan must defeat Sri Lanka on Saturday to stay in contention for a last-four berth. However, a simple win will not suffice. They need a commanding victory to overturn a significant net run-rate deficit.

New Zealand currently sit ahead with three points from three matches and a healthy NRR of +1.390, while Pakistan have just one point from two games and an NRR of -0.461. Notably, Pakistan are yet to beat a full-member side in this edition — having lost to India and England, while their clash with New Zealand was washed out. Their only wins have come against USA, Namibia and the Netherlands.

Shaheen Afridi hints at captaincy change

Following Pakistan’s heavy defeat to India, former captain Shahid Afridi had stirred debate by suggesting that Shaheen Afridi, Babar Azam and Shadab Khan should not be considered for future T20Is.

Now, Afridi has made an intriguing remark about Shadab’s potential elevation to captaincy.

“If Mike Hesson continues as coach, I think Shadab Khan will be made captain. They go back a long way from their time with Islamabad United in the PSL,” Afridi said on Samaa TV.

“Shadab is not a bad choice, but if his bowling performances were better, it would make the decision easier. We need him to deliver consistently. I’ve always said he’s the backbone of the team. Make him captain, but he must perform.”

Pakistan are currently third in Group 2 with one point and must produce a decisive win over Sri Lanka at the Pallekele International Cricket Stadium.

If they bat first, Pakistan need to win by at least 64 runs. If chasing, they must overhaul the target within 13.1 overs to surpass New Zealand on net run rate.

Failure to meet either condition will see New Zealand progress as the second-placed team from the group.

Should New Zealand advance, they are scheduled to play the first semi-final in Kolkata — although that could change if South Africa lose to Zimbabwe and India finish atop Group 1, potentially altering the venue dynamics.

For Pakistan, the equation is clear: win big or go home.