Pakistan's chances of making the semifinals of the T20 World Cup 2026 are rapidly diminishing after New Zealand's resounding 61-run victory over Sri Lanka in their Super 8 match in Colombo on Wednesday. This convincing triumph not only almost qualified New Zealand but also made the group stage very difficult for Salman Ali Agha, who led the Pakistan side. England has clinched a semifinal spot from the group, whereas Sri Lanka has been eliminated.
Super 8 Group 2 Points Table (After NZ vs SL)
1. England- 4 points (2 matches, NRR +1.491)
2. New Zealand- 3 points (2 matches, NRR +3.050)
3. Pakistan- 1 point (2 matches, NRR -0.461)
4. Sri Lanka- 0 points (2 matches, NRR -2.800)
Pakistan have just one Super 8 match remaining against Sri Lanka on February 28. Meanwhile, New Zealand will face England on February 27 in what could be a decisive encounter.
Also Read: India post 256, keep semifinal hopes alive with big victory
What Pakistan need to qualify
Scenario 1: New Zealand lose to England
If England defeats New Zealand and Pakistan beats Sri Lanka, both Pakistan and New Zealand will finish on three points.
In that case, qualification will be decided by Net run rate (NRR).
However, New Zealand currently boast a superior NRR (+3.050), while Pakistan’s stands at -0.461. For Pakistan to leapfrog them, two things must happen:
- England must defeat New Zealand by a massive margin.
- Pakistan must register a huge win over Sri Lanka.
Only a dramatic swing in NRR can keep Pakistan’s campaign alive.
Scenario 2: New Zealand wins, or Pakistan slip up
- If Pakistan lose to Sri Lanka, they are eliminated.
- If New Zealand defeat England, Pakistan will be knocked out even before playing their final match.
- If the England vs New Zealand match is washed out, New Zealand move to four points, eliminating Pakistan regardless of their result against Sri Lanka.
