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NEW DELHI: India's absolute dominance at home will be tested when they face a determined New Zealand in the decisive third ODI at the high-scoring Holkar Stadium on Sunday. The three-match series is locked at 1-1.

India have not lost a bilateral ODI series at home since March 2019, when Australia came back from 0-2 down to win 3-2, including the decider in Delhi. That record will now be under the microscope.

For New Zealand, the stakes are equally high.

The Black Caps have toured India for bilateral ODIs since 1989 but have never won a series in India. This could be their best chance to break that streak.

India head coach Gautam Gambhir will want to avoid another tumble at home after a series of unwanted firsts under his leadership. India have lost five Tests at home with him in charge, along with an ODI series defeat in Sri Lanka for the first time.

India's loss in the second ODI at Rajkot was less about one exceptional innings and more about how New Zealand took control in the middle overs.

Daryl Mitchell’s unbeaten century was based on calculated aggression, especially against spin, which India have struggled against recently.

Indore, with its short boundaries and little assistance for bowlers, allows minimal room for error.

India’s struggles against spin have raised questions. Despite the depth and power in the side, strike rotation has stalled at crucial phases. Batters have often been forced into high-risk shots instead of accumulating runs steadily.

On a ground where totals can quickly pass 350, those quiet overs can shift momentum decisively.

Will there be a RoKo show

Much of the attention will be on Rohit Sharma, who has had a lean series so far. His ultra-aggressive approach at the top has been a hallmark of India’s recent ODI strategy, but repeated early dismissals have added pressure.

Virat Kohli remains the fulcrum of India’s ODI batting. With the next senior ODI assignment likely to come in July during the England tour, fans will hope for another big RoKo show.

Selection balance

The choice between Nitish Kumar Reddy and Ayush Badoni is a debate between depth and control.

Reddy adds seam-bowling options, even if used sparingly, along with late-innings power. Badoni offers more stability against spin and composure in the middle overs.

The case for including left-arm pacer Arshdeep Singh also grows at Indore. Variations rather than raw pace often decide matches here.

Arshdeep can swing the new ball, attack the stumps, and bowl yorkers at the death. He gives India a tactical edge against New Zealand’s mostly right-handed top and middle order.

His inclusion would ease the workload on spinners in the middle and late overs, allowing India to rely more on pace and precise lengths—better suited to Holkar Stadium than spin.

The challenge is whom he would replace. Mohammed Siraj’s new-ball role is crucial, so the likely trade-off would be a spinner or a seam-bowling all-rounder depending on conditions and batting depth.

KL Rahul’s role is already clear. His returns at number five highlight the importance of keeping him there rather than pushing him to six, where his ability to manage tempo and rebuild under pressure is reduced.

New Zealand have confidence and clarity. Mitchell’s dominance, supported by Devon Conway, shows how the Black Caps identify match-ups and execute without overreach.

Their bowlers, though lacking big names, have used variations and consistent lengths effectively in conditions offering little natural help.

At a venue where bowlers are often reduced to damage control, the contest may hinge as much on tactical decisions as skill.

For Shubman Gill and his side, the challenge is not just winning the series but showing tactical flexibility and situational awareness—traits that define successful teams when margins are tight and pressure is high.

Teams:

India: Shubman Gill (c), Yashasvi Jaiswal, Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma, KL Rahul (wk), Dhruv Jurel (wk), Ravindra Jadeja, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Ayush Badoni, Kuldeep Yadav, Arshdeep Singh, Prasidh Krishna, Mohammed Siraj, Harshit Rana

New Zealand: Michael Bracewell (c), Devon Conway (wk), Mitchell Hay (wk), Nick Kelly, Henry Nicholls, Will Young, Josh Clarkson, Zak Foulkes, Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Adithya Ashok, Kristian Clarke, Kyle Jamieson, Jayden Lennox, Michael Rae

Match starts at 1:30pm IST

(With PTI Inputs)